{"entity": "publication", "iuid": "ae7b0340c02148e79cbc09e17b5bbae9", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T23:39:55.690Z", "links": {"self": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/publication/ae7b0340c02148e79cbc09e17b5bbae9.json"}, "display": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/publication/ae7b0340c02148e79cbc09e17b5bbae9"}}, "title": "App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden.", "authors": [{"family": "Kennedy", "given": "Beatrice", "initials": "B"}, {"family": "Fitipaldi", "given": "Hugo", "initials": "H", "orcid": "0000-0001-5352-2134", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/178a6a1fc31c42e2b502633c4c356286.json"}}, {"family": "Hammar", "given": "Ulf", "initials": "U"}, {"family": "Maziarz", "given": "Marlena", "initials": "M", "orcid": "0000-0003-1417-6050", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/25a620b3dc644ed7b69c098abe1d344a.json"}}, {"family": "Tsereteli", "given": "Neli", "initials": "N"}, {"family": "Oskolkov", "given": "Nikolay", "initials": "N"}, {"family": "Varotsis", "given": "Georgios", "initials": "G"}, {"family": "Franks", "given": "Camilla A", "initials": "CA"}, {"family": "Nguyen", "given": "Diem", "initials": "D", "orcid": "0000-0002-9680-5772", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/5b12f13041f343e19fd4566678181b69.json"}}, {"family": "Spiliopoulos", "given": "Lampros", "initials": "L"}, {"family": "Adami", "given": "Hans-Olov", "initials": "HO", "orcid": "0000-0001-9592-5791", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/48ac9e530e134d85b600722e145a67ac.json"}}, {"family": "Bj\u00f6rk", "given": "Jonas", "initials": "J", "orcid": "0000-0003-1883-2000", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/0e898da2ed624022a2da0ec479797d16.json"}}, {"family": "Engblom", "given": "Stefan", "initials": "S", "orcid": "0000-0002-3614-1732", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/1b4e1fd82dc3460dbfc7673bba52f5a2.json"}}, {"family": "Fall", "given": "Katja", "initials": "K"}, {"family": "Grimby-Ekman", "given": "Anna", "initials": "A"}, {"family": "Litton", "given": "Jan-Eric", "initials": "JE"}, {"family": "Martinell", "given": "Mats", "initials": "M"}, {"family": "Oudin", "given": "Anna", "initials": "A"}, {"family": "Sj\u00f6str\u00f6m", "given": "Torbj\u00f6rn", "initials": "T"}, {"family": "Timpka", "given": "Toomas", "initials": "T", "orcid": "0000-0001-6049-5402", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/290b0d92b0f64766bc54cb73e61030e2.json"}}, {"family": "Sudre", "given": "Carole H", "initials": "CH"}, {"family": "Graham", "given": "Mark S", "initials": "MS"}, {"family": "du Cadet", "given": "Julien Lavigne", "initials": "JL"}, {"family": "Chan", "given": "Andrew T", "initials": "AT"}, {"family": "Davies", "given": "Richard", "initials": "R", "orcid": "0000-0003-2050-3994", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/72450e238fef4522b84e7db4d4136ed1.json"}}, {"family": "Ganesh", "given": "Sajaysurya", "initials": "S"}, {"family": "May", "given": "Anna", "initials": "A"}, {"family": "Ourselin", "given": "S\u00e9bastien", "initials": "S"}, {"family": "Pujol", "given": "Joan Capdevila", "initials": "JC"}, {"family": "Selvachandran", "given": "Somesh", "initials": "S"}, {"family": "Wolf", "given": "Jonathan", "initials": "J", "orcid": "0000-0002-0530-2257", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/41d8d09d232243188438af14c2713187.json"}}, {"family": "Spector", "given": "Tim D", "initials": "TD", "orcid": "0000-0002-9795-0365", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/6d79b7af2d7a4f1da46ac2ee2bb1eb0b.json"}}, {"family": "Steves", "given": "Claire J", "initials": "CJ", "orcid": "0000-0002-4910-0489", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/e8243f3a696746c68a6be2ac9f8a0f83.json"}}, {"family": "Gomez", "given": "Maria F", "initials": "MF", "orcid": "0000-0001-6210-3142", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/548250bc4a4045d79e09c8d8484f3a0d.json"}}, {"family": "Franks", "given": "Paul W", "initials": "PW", "orcid": "0000-0002-0520-7604", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/8263a26f474946de8b61a2080051d37b.json"}}, {"family": "Fall", "given": "Tove", "initials": "T", "orcid": "0000-0003-2071-5866", "researcher": {"href": "https://publications-affiliated.scilifelab.se/researcher/7dbbd468e6da4727b69333ade942c071.json"}}], "type": "journal article", "published": "2022-04-21", "journal": {"title": "Nat Commun", "issn": "2041-1723", "volume": "13", "issue": "1", "pages": "2110", "issn-l": "2041-1723"}, "abstract": "The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (\u226518 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-022-29608-7", "pmid": "35449172", "labels": [], "xrefs": [{"db": "pmc", "key": "PMC9023535"}, {"db": "pii", "key": "10.1038/s41467-022-29608-7"}], "notes": [], "created": "2026-09-23T09:51:08.549Z", "modified": "2026-09-23T10:25:09.469Z"}